Allies had some really good attacks this campaign whether it seemed like it or not and the overall pop was much better in the beginning and middle of campaign. Early on allies were slightly overpop almost every night in the beginning of tz3 (idk about the whole tz3 since I don't play far into tz3 anymore). There were a couple days early on allied had a lot of momentum, taking back namur, spontin, gembloux, leuven, st truiden and diest I believe. If allies could play like that and have that population more regularly itll bring a lot of balance i think.
The turning point of the campaign seemed to be when axis capped phillipville and cut off several river towns and flavion. That's when it seemed like the allies really started getting rolled. That is a big momentum boost for any side, but it was worse for the allies since their morale is already low from several campaign losses. Props though to all the allies who still fought hard and still played just as regularly after that.
It seems from the last dozen, or maybe more, campaigns that once axis get to chimay area in the south or cap antwerp or brussels in the north and mid, allied start to log in a bit less. Then it snowballs. Transversly, once allies secure eindhoven/nandrin/bertrix areas, axis log in less and it snowballs. Not always, but frequent enough to notice a pattern.