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      Forum Upgrade - 7 Jun.   06/01/2020

      The initial phase of the forum updating has been completed.  We will now be moving onto Phase II: Software update:   The current forum software is in need up an update to current version.  We have been testing the newer version, and are ready to update our live forums.    Themes: The Current WWIIOL Theme will be retired as part of the forum update.  It is non-compatible with the newer forum software.  A new WWIIOL Theme will be added after upgrade (as part of the upgade if everything goes smooth).   Once the update is completed the forums should look the same, but perform significantly better.   We will also be able to potentially expand functionality to include features and add-ons that are not available with our current version of the forum software.   There will be a few hours of downtime beginning on 7 Jun in the the early evening Server Time. 
OHM

Tier changes and other stuff

228 posts in this topic

44 minutes ago, madrebel said:

technically no reason. realistically you've got politics. the US would not have risked sending a single division unless they were likely to land safely AND can be resupplied. remember this early in the war the majority of the US population wanted nothing to do with foreign wars. while the japanese had attacked, if you ship over a lot of sons/fathers to fight the germans and get them sunk en-route your ability to galvanize further support for the war in europe is immediately in jeopardy.

none of that particularly relevant for a game, however this is a thread that is heavily discussing history and accuracy. in reality, the US didn't have the capacity nor the will to risk sending their own sons this early to fight the germans in france. especially when US weapon makers were making damn good money just shipping over vehicles.

lose a ship full of trucks with only the ships crew going down ... not a big deal. lose a ship full of humans ... very big deal. 

True, but it was known early on that subs had a very low probability of being able to target fast liners, which is how most early personnel were sent to England, from which they sailed in tactically loaded transports. RMS Queen Mary and RMS Queen Elizabeth were typical of such liners. All could sustain 29 knots in fair or moderate weather straight across the Atlantic...easily fast enough to eliminate the need for zigzagging, and too fast to be effectively fixed with a WWII torpedo targeting computer.

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Oh, Oh... So the Axis never invade Russia and the Russians send all their idle T-34s to France...

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7 minutes ago, minky said:

I do understand cryptography. I understand enough to know that there were different versions of the enigma machine that the Allied forces had to respond to during the war. There were periods of time where Allied forces could not decrypt German u-boat traffic while they worked in cracking the new technology. The Germans continued to push their cryptography and the Allies continued to respond.  Just like the new weapon tech. The war didn’t stop because the Allies were suddenly in the dark for awhile. As I said, it’s an over simplified statement to say enigma was broken and that was that. 

you need to read more. more rotors were added, yes. the 'newest' version was in 42. however, the underlying cipher and its mechanism didn't change. essentially all they did was extend the key length or bit depth so to speak. to compare versus todays tech, they went from 32bit to 64bit but didn't alter the underlying algorithm - because they thought it was uncrackable. as such, if you break it once, you know how to break all versions of it.

 

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7 minutes ago, dog3 said:

Oh, Oh... So the Axis never invade Russia and the Russians send all their idle T-34s to France...

The French could do with some of those Yaks for later tier rides.

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7 minutes ago, jwilly said:

True, but it was known early on that subs had a very low probability of being able to target fast liners, which is how most early personnel were sent to England, from which they sailed in tactically loaded transports. RMS Queen Mary and RMS Queen Elizabeth were typical of such liners. All could sustain 29 knots in fair or moderate weather straight across the Atlantic...easily fast enough to eliminate the need for zigzagging, and too fast to be effectively fixed with a WWII torpedo targeting computer.

fair point but again, we're back to capacity. i've walked the queen mary, used to do some work for the long beach aquarium so i got some back stage access on the mary. its NOT a cargo ship. people, sure. some munitions .. why not. big guns, trucks, food, water, etc etc to fight a battle ... not so much.

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1 minute ago, Kilemall said:

The French could do with some of those Yaks for later tier rides.

and dont forget you can use russian klimov 105 specs (license built hispano-suiza engines) to make dewotines and arsenal fighters well into 43.

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2 minutes ago, dog3 said:

Oh, Oh... So the Axis never invade Russia and the Russians send all their idle T-34s to France...

Heh. Maybe by ship via the Baltic? Oh, that won't work.

Well, how about by rail via the connections through German, Austria or Italy? Hmmm, that doesn't work either.

Maybe drive them? No, not so good.

Maybe by air? Nope, no existing transports with the needed capacity. Plus, Germany and Italy controlled the needed airspace.

Maybe by rail to the Black Sea, then in large transports (hmmm, don't exist) through the Bosphorus, past Sicily to southern France? Oh, Italy might object, and had a largish navy and air force. 

Maybe Russia would just build a big enough cannon to shoot the tanks across Europe to France? Seems like the best idea of the available options.

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2 minutes ago, madrebel said:

you need to read more. more rotors were added, yes. the 'newest' version was in 42. however, the underlying cipher and its mechanism didn't change. essentially all they did was extend the key length or bit depth so to speak. to compare versus todays tech, they went from 32bit to 64bit but didn't alter the underlying algorithm - because they thought it was uncrackable. as such, if you break it once, you know how to break all versions of it.

 Enigma was technically unbreakable if good operating procedures would have been followed.  It was not the Enigma machine itself that was the problem, it was user error on the Germans' part that allowed the Allies to crack it.  

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12 minutes ago, madrebel said:

you need to read more. more rotors were added, yes. the 'newest' version was in 42. however, the underlying cipher and its mechanism didn't change. essentially all they did was extend the key length or bit depth so to speak. to compare versus todays tech, they went from 32bit to 64bit but didn't alter the underlying algorithm - because they thought it was uncrackable. as such, if you break it once, you know how to break all versions of it.

 

Actually, their underlying algorithm was quite sound. What allowed for the continued breaking of the code was poor SOPs and lazy operators. It’s much more complex then you are letting on and required continuous Allied crypto analysis. 

Edited by minky

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6 minutes ago, jwilly said:

Heh. Maybe by ship via the Baltic? Oh, that won't work.

Well, how about by rail via the connections through German, Austria or Italy? Hmmm, that doesn't work either.

Maybe drive them? No, not so good.

Maybe by air? Nope, no existing transports with the needed capacity. Plus, Germany and Italy controlled the needed airspace.

Maybe by rail to the Black Sea, then in large transports (hmmm, don't exist) through the Bosphorus, past Sicily to southern France? Oh, Italy might object, and had a largish navy and air force. 

Maybe Russia would just build a big enough cannon to shoot the tanks across Europe to France? Seems like the best idea of the available options.

From Murmansk via ship along coast of Norway, of course... or Siberia to US and Canada...

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if i get more into the weeds i'll lose everyone dude - fundamentally when a strong cipher is broken and its core underpinnings remain constant, it doesn't matter if you extend the key length to infinity when you've got a computer that can crack it, based on the poor SOP you mention. yes, we got lucky - and after that we took that lucky break and used it to absolutely dominate and ultimately defeat the germans. this cracked code turned the tide for all the allies. the day it was broken the war was effectively over.

 

on the flip side, our native american code was essentially a clear text cipher that under normal circumstances would be trivial to break. the problem for the japanese, the language used was essentially a dead language spoken only by a very small group of people. its like trying to crack a book cipher but the books were never written.

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40 minutes ago, madrebel said:

if i get more into the weeds i'll lose everyone dude - fundamentally when a strong cipher is broken and its core underpinnings remain constant, it doesn't matter if you extend the key length to infinity when you've got a computer that can crack it, based on the poor SOP you mention. yes, we got lucky - and after that we took that lucky break and used it to absolutely dominate and ultimately defeat the germans. this cracked code turned the tide for all the allies. the day it was broken the war was effectively over.

 

on the flip side, our native american code was essentially a clear text cipher that under normal circumstances would be trivial to break. the problem for the japanese, the language used was essentially a dead language spoken only by a very small group of people. its like trying to crack a book cipher but the books were never written.

Again, it’s far more complex than than that. What you are essentially talking about is a brute force attack. The Allies code breaking machines did not have the ability to brute force all possible permutations of the enigma machines. Keys had to be reverse engineered on a daily basis. 

There were ques that helped them do that. For example, some units would transmit the exact same message every day to HQs. This allowed tha Allies to reverse engineer the daily key. What if for example the message wasn’t sent that day?  Some operators were lazy and didn’t reset the “random” keys the way they were supposed to. This allowed the Allies to reverse engineer the daily key. What if said operator didn’t send a message that day?

Breaking enigma was actually an ongoing daily battle even with the algorithm you speak of and certainly wasn’t 100 percent. 

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and yet its well documented how trivial it became throughout the war and how many key battles it turned - days/weeks before the battles even started. its not really debated how valuable Blechley's intel was to the war effort. by all means though, you're welcome to insist otherwise.

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so according to the readme, no panther for the germans. we do however have two 17lber AFVs that debuted at dday (T-4.5) and we don't have the T3 pantherD. what happened to timelines and historical entry and etc etc etc? this feels like a counter balance to the tiger - which btw is totally fine but now you've put you foot in your mouth with this historical entry crap.

so stupid.

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57 minutes ago, madrebel said:

and yet its well documented how trivial it became throughout the war and how many key battles it turned - days/weeks before the battles even started. its not really debated how valuable Blechley's intel was to the war effort. by all means though, you're welcome to insist otherwise.

I think the folks who worked on a daily basis to break the encryption keys in order to plug them into that algorithm you are talking about would beg to differ with your use of the word trivial. Like so many things during the war it’s impressive the scope and scale at which this was done. These folks worked day in and day out to provide that intel in what was nothing short of a Herculean effort. They probably saved more lives than any combatant commander’s brilliant plan or tactical maneuver. The enigma was capable of something like 900 million possible keys. Who knows how long it would have taken to run all 900 million combinations against a single day’s worth of messages just to get the key to brute force the thing.  Then the key changes every 24 hours.  It’s impressive the lengths the Allies went to in order to narrow the possible combinations down to decrypt messages in an amount of time that was usable  for combatant commanders.  The effort was anything but trivial though.

 

Edited by minky

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3 minutes ago, madrebel said:

so according to the readme, no panther for the germans. we do however have two 17lber AFVs that debuted at dday (T-4.5) and we don't have the T3 pantherD. what happened to timelines and historical entry and etc etc etc? this feels like a counter balance to the tiger - which btw is totally fine but now you've put you foot in your mouth with this historical entry crap.

so stupid.

Did you expect anything less?  I expected a counter balance to the Tiger. I would have been utterly shocked to see some counter balances in the air war. 

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7 minutes ago, minky said:

Did you expect anything less?  I expected a counter balance to the Tiger. I would have been utterly shocked to see some counter balances in the air war. 

of course not, because there isn't any other way to properly balance the game. its just funny because this literally goes 180 degrees against the "historical debut" crap this thread is talking about.

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Yeah, the math behind cryptanalysis isn't exactly your basic arithmetic.  Even I find it hard to digest.  

 

Also, the standard Enigma (3 wheels in use out of 5 possible) had like 160 quintillion settings.  That's 10^18.  

 

According to highball estimates, Ultra shortened the war by 2 years and probably saved some 14 million lives.  

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3 minutes ago, Capco said:

Yeah, the math behind cryptanalysis isn't exactly your basic arithmetic.  Even I find it hard to digest.  

 

Also, the standard Enigma (3 wheels in use out of 5 possible) had like 160 quintillion settings.  That's 10^18.  

 

According to highball estimates, Ultra shortened the war by 2 years and probably saved some 14 million lives.  

I remember where I got 900 million now. It would take 1000 analysts working at 4 keys a minute something like an average of 900 million years to break the code  with the max being something like 1.8 billion years. I guess the Germans felt pretty safe with those odds. Then come the human errors. Good thing for human fallibility. 

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58 minutes ago, madrebel said:

of course not, because there isn't any other way to properly balance the game. its just funny because this literally goes 180 degrees against the "historical debut" crap this thread is talking about.

Well at least one of the major imbalances in game is being addressed. The other is on year 14 and counting. 

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3 hours ago, minky said:

I’m guessing military planners would have wanted to avoid Normandy at all costs.

I would have, if you think about it, it was the mother of all fails waiting to happen, that simply did not.
few different choices made on the axis side and it would have been a massive red tide.
Imagine if they hit normandy and found the axis had decided to commit a heavy amount of forces there instead.

 

 

1 hour ago, madrebel said:

so according to the readme, no panther for the germans.

panther takes a bit longer as it can not be made from any other existing platforms.

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29 minutes ago, minky said:

The other is on year 14 and counting. 

Except we were not running things 14 years ago.
We cant fix 17 years overnight

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2 minutes ago, Merlin51 said:

Except we were not running things 14 years ago.
We cant fix 17 years overnight

The major long standing issues should have been the first ones addressed. 

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24 minutes ago, minky said:

The major long standing issues should have been the first ones addressed. 

 you are assuming they are not being so
and you are assuming all things take the same amount of time
and that we would withhold A because B takes longer.

You are more than welcome to come help

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17 minutes ago, Merlin51 said:

 you are assuming they are not being so
and you are assuming all things take the same amount of time
and that we would withhold A because B takes longer.

You are more than welcome to come help

Then what exactly is being done to ensure that the Axis Air Force can compete in the battle space that matters in WWIIOL right above active AOs?  What steps does CRS have planned to ensure that happens?

I see thought being put into evening up the LMG. I see thought being put into evening out the Tiger. I see no real moves to make the LW competitive. An imbalance going on year 15 that doesn’t seem to be getting discussed as far as I can tell. If it’s being worked on what are the the plans?  Enlighten me. 

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