choad

Charting campaign 159 - wiretap captures stats

51 posts in this topic

7 minutes ago, ian77 said:

How is your effort more than anyone else's?

Looking at your amended total captured town stats the only TZ that stands out as "unbalanced" is TZ1.

Players in TZ2 and TZ3 seem to be able to move the map equally.

And of course attrition is a factor in TZ3, if 1 and 2 have burned through all the supply before they even log in. You want to see hard core play, then spawn in TZ3 and fight in depleted flags without any HC to move in a new flag with fresh supply.

The basic issue seems to be whether the capture of towns should be constant across TZs or whether the map should move "more" when more total players are logged in.

Personally, TZs having equal worth seems good, but then I think being able to spawn a panzer in most towns is "good" and I know the RATs do not.

 

 

S! Ian

I think the issue is that the game doesn't play the same way in lowpop as it does in high pop.  

 

If the game didn't break down during lowpop, and there were excellent balance mechanisms in place, then theoretically no TZ would have more impact than any other absent any other factors.  

 

I don't actually hate TZ3 players or anything.  I just hate how the game plays during times of extremely low population (in any TZ, really).  Tbh, some of the best and most dedicated players this game has ever produced play in TZ3.  I've played my share of TZ3 too.  People are, imo, more skilled overall in TZ3, and I think that's partly a product of necessity.  It's not an option to suck when pop is that low lol.  A lost 1v1 can mean the difference in the outcome of a battle sometimes.  

 

Also, I'm very sorry about the current setup depriving tankers from tanking.  That should all go away with 1.36, since the only differentiation between spawnlists will be the small/medium/large designations, meaning there will probably be some of every unit available to every army in every town, even the "small" ones.  I hope you are subbed then.  

 

S!

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Not sure when my various accounts are due for renewal, but if these experiments with TOEs are needed for 1.36 that says to me that it is going to be "no panzers" in 1.36 except in the armoured flag(s) where ever that may be.

I see it as changing an aspect of basic game play from the last 12 years (flag based? cant remember now when it came in, but it was going to save the game and be more realistic...) which 1.36 is about to fundamentally change anyway, so why bother doing this now? But that is my personal bias, and I don't know what is and is not needed for 1.36 to be successful.

Back on topic :) - I am just glad that TZ3 hasn't gotten the most capped towns, then it would be breaking the campaign game.

Also with regard to number of caps per town, I know Axis HC consider numbers and deliberately AO smaller towns in low pop, since timers etc make it very hard to capture larger towns and cities. That will have an impact on the towns capped per cp ratio.  LOL don't you just love raw statistics/data and how the same numbers can be used to justify opposites!

 

S! Ian

Edited by ian77

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1 hour ago, Capco said:

@choadAny chance you could make a third graph that is basically a plot of the 2nd set of data divided by the first set for each side?  i.e.  CP Caps per Captured Town per Hour

Yes.

Also if someone could clearly spell out the gmt hours for tz1, tz2, tz3 ...etc. How many hours, and how many tz groups there are. I am not sure i am clear on that.

Edited by choad
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1 hour ago, Capco said:

 

TZ1 =  (14:00-21:59 GMT) 

TZ2 =  (22:00-05:59 GMT) 

TZ3 =  (06:00-13:59 GMT)

 

Capco kindly provided the TZ split

 

S! Ian

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21 minutes ago, choad said:

Yes.

Also if someone could clearly spell out the gmt hours for tz1, tz2, tz3 ...etc. How many hours, and how many tz groups there are. I am not sure i am clear on that.

Usually 3 TZs, if you make them 8 hours each. I just arbitrarily picked TZ1 to start at 14:00 GMT and end after 8 hours, but maybe there's a case to be made for a better dividing line.  

 

That makes TZ2 arbitrarily start at 22:00 GMT or 5pm EST/ 4pm Server Time. 

 

Also, the data has changed since I've refreshed the page a few times (people are playing right now after all!), so some of the numbers posted before are already inaccurate lol.  

Edited by Capco

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Thanks zeebee. I am still prob 6 or 8 hrs from being able to look into this. I will pm u if i need ya to test again.

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17 minutes ago, Capco said:

Usually 3 TZs, if you make them 8 hours each. I just arbitrarily picked TZ1 to start at 14:00 GMT and end after 8 hours, but maybe there's a case to be made for a better dividing line.

 

Also, the data has changed since I've refreshed the page a few times (people are playing right now after all!), so some of the numbers posted before are already inaccurate lol.  

I have always thought those sort of times were right.

 

As for changing data.... NO! STOP IT!  The numbers work for my point of view the way they are, so leave them alone! :) 

 

S! ian

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Updated a few things - threw out a couple new charts. Grouping caps by day instead of by hour. Also added one for caps per town taken (requested by @Capco). For that particular chart, you may want to hide the Allied data (click on the allied color swatch in the legend) to get a little better gauge of what you are looking for.

 

 

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15 minutes ago, choad said:

Updated a few things - threw out a couple new charts. Grouping caps by day instead of by hour. Also added one for caps per town taken (requested by @Capco). For that particular chart, you may want to hide the Allied data (click on the allied color swatch in the legend) to get a little better gauge of what you are looking for.

Thanks.  I figured some of the data for the loser would look weird since they are more likely to cap zero towns at a given hour.

 

But that's exactly what I was looking for, thanks a bunch!

 

S!

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I just added a new chart - it takes into account sortie details from the player base and provides an estimate of percent share of population. It's the last chart in the list. It has only been tallying data for a little over 24 hours, so it isn't the entire campaign. Once it normalizes a bit - it will be far more useful. But you get the idea.

 

http://www.campaigncharts.com/

 

 

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During intermission when i have time, i will update it to optionally group population by 15 min, 30 min, 1 hour, intervals for cleaner viewing. Also will add another line to give total population indicator.

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10 hours ago, choad said:

I just added a new chart - it takes into account sortie details from the player base and provides an estimate of percent share of population. It's the last chart in the list. It has only been tallying data for a little over 24 hours, so it isn't the entire campaign. Once it normalizes a bit - it will be far more useful. But you get the idea.

http://www.campaigncharts.com/

Even with the small sample size, this is interesting - it certainly seems to be geographically influenced if we assume the bulk of players in an area are active during 'prime time' - late afternoon into mid evening.

Late afternoon and evening in Europe, population is heavily Axis-biased. It balances out roughly as we get into North American prime time for the east coast, and this lasts until the west coast NA hits prime time, at which point it shifts to be predominantly Axis again, and stays that way until morning in Europe, where the pop remains balanced until Euro prime time.

Granted, this is a campaign where I am sure a good percentage of Allies have already given up and aren't logging in as readily, and it's only 24 hours at that. I'll be curious to see how this looks next campaign.

On that note - how do you get Sortie details via Wiretap? I've never noticed that in the documentation, but in another thread Merlin51 indicated that CSR pulls it's data from wiretap as well. I'm assuming that there are resource endpoints which aren't published in the documentation.

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Just now, caydel said:

Even with the small sample size, this is interesting - it certainly seems to be geographically influenced if we assume the bulk of players in an area are active during 'prime time' - late afternoon into mid evening.

Late afternoon and evening in Europe, population is heavily Axis-biased. It balances out roughly as we get into North American prime time for the east coast, and this lasts until the west coast NA hits prime time, at which point it shifts to be predominantly Axis again, and stays that way until morning in Europe, where the pop remains balanced until Euro prime time.

Granted, this is a campaign where I am sure a good percentage of Allies have already given up and aren't logging in as readily, and it's only 24 hours at that. I'll be curious to see how this looks next campaign.

On that note - how do you get Sortie details via Wiretap? I've never noticed that in the documentation, but in another thread Merlin51 indicated that CSR pulls it's data from wiretap as well. I'm assuming that there are resource endpoints which aren't published in the documentation.

You are correct, it is not published. There is an API endpoint that the stats website uses that can be tapped into.

I am fairly confident that the method I am using will produce a pretty accurate result, maybe 95% or greater (my guess)? As long as you capture, kill, or be killed - you should be included. If you login, sit on the map or mission screen, you not be accounted for.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, choad said:

You are correct, it is not published. There is an API endpoint that the stats website uses that can be tapped into.

I am fairly confident that the method I am using will produce a pretty accurate result, maybe 95% or greater (my guess)? As long as you capture, kill, or be killed - you should be included. If you login, sit on the map or mission screen, you not be accounted for.

Yep, sorties would be a sound way of measuring pop population levels. Another slightly more complex way that might be even better would be to compare TOM from those sorties. I have a gut feeling that absolute Allied sortie numbers are moderately inflated by differing play style and strategy compared to Axis, especially around CP / bunked attack / capture.

I've had it in the back of my head to build my own Wiretap-based tools and toys to test out some newer technology I want to play with - it's very intriguing to know there is more data available than shown in the documentation.

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Just now, caydel said:

Yep, sorties would be a sound way of measuring pop population levels. Another slightly more complex way that might be even better would be to compare TOM from those sorties. I have a gut feeling that absolute Allied sortie numbers are moderately inflated by differing play style and strategy compared to Axis, especially around CP / bunked attack / capture.

I've had it in the back of my head to build my own Wiretap-based tools and toys to test out some newer technology I want to play with - it's very intriguing to know there is more data available than shown in the documentation.

Yeah that is kind of what I am doing. I am looking at things in 15 minute checkpoints. So if you have a sortie that last 1 minute - you count in that one 15 minute block. If you have a 1 hour sortie - you are now counted in 4 of the checkpoints. So it kind of measures TOM to a certain degree.

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Well, it's interesting to see a full set of campaign data now that C160 has finished.  There are some very depressing charts. 

 

If we think of CPs capped per town capped per hour as a measure of town capture difficulty, it's almost mind boggling how little resistance the Axis face outside of early TZ1.  The population difference during TZ3 is downright absurd;  Axis are averaging like 40% more players during that TZ.

 

It's still not definitive until we see how the data looks during a full campaign that results in an Allied victory, but I have a hunch it won't look the same as this.  I expect there to be much more parity on the CPs capped per town capped per hour chart.  

Edited by Capco

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Well - I first started looking at this during campaign 158 - but it isn't online. The only thing I looked at was the captured towns grouped by hour. I took a screenshot of the chart - showing a complete look at 158:

 

camp158.JPG

Edited by choad

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And snaking your way across France too win the map in 2 days is not gamey?  HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAHAH  U take KEY Towns during TZ3 because you have ZERO Opposition  What I want too see is WHAT Towns were capped during TZ3  

 

THAT is your answer to BALANCE 

 

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15 minutes ago, choad said:

Well - I first started looking at this during campaign 158 - but it isn't online. The only thing I looked at was the captured towns grouped by hour. I took a screenshot of the chart - showing a complete look at 158:

 

camp158.JPG

This is roughly the difference that I would expect.  The Axis still outperform the Allies in early/mid TZ3.  The Allies best showing was in TZ1 (probably from the WHIPS).  TZ2 is pretty competitive.  

 

Also worthy of note is that the Axis were at least able to capture some towns at every hour of the day, unlike the zeroes seen in the last two campaigns for the Allies.  

Edited by Capco

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9 minutes ago, choad said:

Well - I first started looking at this during campaign 158 - but it isn't online. The only thing I looked at was the captured towns grouped by hour. I took a screenshot of the chart - showing a complete look at 158:

 

camp158.JPG

thx for your work on the charts. game needs more people, and more allies as we know by now. and one minor point: it looks suspiciously like the 2016 election in USA and will no doubt be as divisive. 

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25 minutes ago, Capco said:

 If we think of CPs capped per town capped per hour as a measure of town capture difficulty, it's almost mind boggling how little resistance the Axis face outside of early TZ1.  The population difference during TZ3 is downright absurd;  Axis are averaging like 40% more players during that TZ.

Precisely. It had been mentioned by someone else here some time ago, but it comes down to the exponential advantage a team with higher population gains when overall numbers are critically low. The game is simply not designed to not have a specific number of players in order to work and when that number falls below a certain threshold the results are game breaking.

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There's another phenomenon where defense actually gets harder at micropopulations in this game setup.

I can typically patrol 2 CPs defensively and still see what's going on the battlefield. Add a third, and I can typically do it BUT I lose battlefield awareness. Unless it's unusual circumstances, I can't patrol more than three, and if I do when I make it back to them and they're under cap they're already significantly through the cap.

What this means is that in times where we have fewer than 5 people defending a town, our game jobs become that much harder. We lose battlefield awareness and the time to do things like roll AT guns or run around looking for FRUs. The loss of people that have to be dedicated to static defense in the bunker hurts that much more. So when there's sub 5 defenders in a town, it doesn't take much to roll through it.

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